Hey folks,
Interesting findings. Will be up soon. Just let me give you this quick update. Again, Trump's vote share with our typical weights is a bit low at 44.4%. It should be closer to 47% (if we take the official results). Biden is only a bit high at 52%, one point overstated. Not bad, but taken together I feel I'm missing something and will keep looking.
That being said...
In hypothetical head-to-head vs. Joe Biden, Donald Trump is running a few points ahead of Republicans on the Generic Ballot. The potential new voters are giving him a bit of a boost against Biden, but Trump leads by Biden by 4 points (44/40) among those who voted in 2020.
The matchup looks ALMOSY IDENTICAL to 2016. It really reminds me of that race, during which third party voters and others simply will vote for someone else. It's an Electoral College landslide.
Stay tuned.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.