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What I See in Jury Notes from Question Numbers 4 & 5

These things are always tricky, especially when we have so little to go on—this case being a few sentences on a note from the jury. But if we want to conduct the exercise, this is what I see.

The jury note indicates this particular juror is most likely a Female Red Authoritarian. That is not the best news for Kyle Rittenhouse.

They place faith in authority to protect self and society, believe in and are focused on control, and extol the virtues of obedience.

The use of the word "Please" when requesting the information is not an argument against a Red, but rather more likely due to deference to and respect for authority. Further, in Question Number 4 (included), the Red in her overwhelms deference when she gets right to the point requesting succinctly (decisiveness/control) the items she requires.

The "control" element is clear in the notice instructing the court to prepare the requested information with a clarification that they will "request when ready", meaning this juror does not want them to interrupt deliberations until they are ready.

The jury was instructed that the court needs time to prepare requested information. However, there's a clear need for control, both of the deliberation and of the flow of information in deliberations.

UPDATE: As was pointed out, her deference is crystal clear by her mimicking of the prosecution's manner of phrasing the fire extinguisher. She is siding with the prosecution on the version of events surrounding the extinguisher, i.e. put down vs. dropped.

In sum, the items requested indicate she's trying to find ill intent in his actions, something to reenforce her belief that Kyle Rittenhouse was wrong by virtue of being there, and is hoping the moments right before and after will sway jurors who are for acquittal. It's a search for something to affirm the version of the story that we all tell ourselves and which is informed by our beliefs, not facts or evidence.

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What Are The Odds: Is Harris Going Down Worse than Hillary?
00:01:14
September 22, 2024
Tucker Shouts Out 10X Votes in Michigan

Hey folks,

Tucker Carlson shouted out 10X Votes in Michigan this weekend. The website is still getting a new user every few seconds.

This is how you humiliate the polls. Best thing about it, there's no consultant money in 10X Votes. Only results to be had.

P.S. The right has a real grifter and consultant problem. Despite it NOT being in my financial interests, I turned down working with probably a half dozen projects because I didn't believe in them. I did work with 10X because 1) the people involved aren't out to make money and 2) it's approach is based on a wealth of behavioral research regarding right vs. leftwing voters.

https://www.10xvotes.com/

00:02:33
September 02, 2024
Kamala Harris Appears on South Park

Ya know, Benny Johnson just reminded me about how Kamala Harris repeatedly said, "I'm speaking" or "Can I finish" during the debate with Mike Pence in 2020.

And then, that in turn, reminded me of this. Tell me it's not legit what she did.

Someone should absolutely make a meme out of this and replace Kamala with the Canadian Minister. If I had time, I would use an AI tool to change the voices and the photoshop her and Trump into the video.

Hell, she's even Canadian AND pretends to be offended by racist remarks that actually aren't racist.

00:01:00
Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Eric Daugherty:

JUST IN: GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde of Wisconsin says he was ahead on Election Night, but then suddenly lost the lead when his opponent won "nearly 99%" of ballots dumped at 4AM in Milwaukee.

Hovde also said he's been reached out to about precincts in Milwaukee having "over 200%" turnout.

He also pointed to a Democrat third party plant who swiped enough votes away from potential GOP voters to prevent Hovde from winning.

"If either of these candidates had not been in the race, the outcome would be different today. Is this right and fair to deceive voters?"

"What happened in this election does not inspire confidence in our process."

Hovde added that he is still considering all options and will announce his next move soon.

Rich,

You called this election almost perfectly. Many pollsters did well but I don’t think anyone nailed it like you. And you cannot be smeared as a “right wing pollster” as you also called the underperformance of Republicans in the House and Senate candidates. You “‘missed” (within MOE) in both directions (slightly overstated Trump in NC but slightly understated in Florida).

You were months ahead (at least) of almost every significant trend (non white coalition, return of Catholics etc). I watch almost every show, and the only thing I can think of that you were “off” on (based on sound reasoning, not your polling), was suggesting Maine may be more bullish for Trump than New Hampshire.

In a just world, you would be a celebrity like Nate Silver after 2012, except it would be legitimately earned. The fact that you are not just demonstrates how corrupt and non-meritocratic our society is.

Anyway, I suspect you don’t do it for the fame. But you are the best political ...

10 hours ago

Richard can you please explain why Trump voters didn't vote for Kari Lake on your next podcast. Kari campaigned on all the same issues as Trump did.

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How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
 
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
 
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
 
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
 
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
 
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
 
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
 
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
 
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
 
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
 
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
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Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

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A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

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