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What I See in Jury Notes from Question Numbers 4 & 5

These things are always tricky, especially when we have so little to go on—this case being a few sentences on a note from the jury. But if we want to conduct the exercise, this is what I see.

The jury note indicates this particular juror is most likely a Female Red Authoritarian. That is not the best news for Kyle Rittenhouse.

They place faith in authority to protect self and society, believe in and are focused on control, and extol the virtues of obedience.

The use of the word "Please" when requesting the information is not an argument against a Red, but rather more likely due to deference to and respect for authority. Further, in Question Number 4 (included), the Red in her overwhelms deference when she gets right to the point requesting succinctly (decisiveness/control) the items she requires.

The "control" element is clear in the notice instructing the court to prepare the requested information with a clarification that they will "request when ready", meaning this juror does not want them to interrupt deliberations until they are ready.

The jury was instructed that the court needs time to prepare requested information. However, there's a clear need for control, both of the deliberation and of the flow of information in deliberations.

UPDATE: As was pointed out, her deference is crystal clear by her mimicking of the prosecution's manner of phrasing the fire extinguisher. She is siding with the prosecution on the version of events surrounding the extinguisher, i.e. put down vs. dropped.

In sum, the items requested indicate she's trying to find ill intent in his actions, something to reenforce her belief that Kyle Rittenhouse was wrong by virtue of being there, and is hoping the moments right before and after will sway jurors who are for acquittal. It's a search for something to affirm the version of the story that we all tell ourselves and which is informed by our beliefs, not facts or evidence.

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MSNBC Focus Group on Georgia Voters Revealing, Confirmation

Hey folks,

Thought this was particularly relevant. As I've been saying, it seems to me that these indictments made Donald Trump more relatable to not only white working class who feel abused, but naturally non-white voters who know the abuses of the state better than most.

Listen to this...

00:01:44
Estimates for Trump Rally in Wildwood are Massive

"On May 11, 2024, a rally for Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign in Wildwood, New Jersey, drew a crowd estimated between 80,000 and 100,000 attendees, marking it as the largest political rally in the state's history. The event featured endorsements from notable figures, including NFL Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor, who publicly switched his political allegiance from Democrat to Republican, citing his meeting with Trump as the reason. The rally was widely discussed on social media, with supporters sharing images and expressing enthusiasm for Trump's policies and the significant turnout."

Holy moly. On Friday, I said during the show that 40,000 would be enormous for a Trump rally in Wildwood, New Jersey.

Folks, holy moly.

00:00:29
Chris Christie Caught on Hot Mic: Nikki Haley "Gonna Get Smoked"

NeverTrump stepped on their own moment!

Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic ahead of his expected announcement that he's dropping out of the presidential race saying of Nikki Haley, "she's gonna get smoked, and you and I both know it."

"She's not up for this."

He further mentions before it drifts off that Ron DeSantis called him "petrified that I would..." AND it fades as they realize the mic is hot.

H/T The Recount

00:00:54
Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?
FOX News Poll Reference

Look at area types rural and urban. That's what I am talking about.

This poll is junk.

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HOLY SHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

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Since it came up today and I'm seeing him tonight, perhaps someone to think about with the lack of talent to run in PA is Bret Michaels. From Butler County, military family/working class roots, very patriotic, full of charisma, comes off as genuine, type 1 diabetic so not happy with Biden's games with insulin prices, dedicated his whole show to Toby Keith. If we're gonna run a celebrity, I think he's a much better fit in PA than Oz. Just a thought as I'm throwing back a few cold ones at his show lol.

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How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
 
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
 
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
 
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
 
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
 
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
 
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
 
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
 
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
 
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
 
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
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Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

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A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

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