I will update this post to reflect some of my observations. Big one that cannot go without saying is that there is a major crack beginning to form in the Democratic Base for Joe Biden. As you all know, this was a matter of time. He has no base, but liberals are now joining the few remaining conservatives in disapproving of the job Biden is doing as president.
His approval on the issues is just horrid.
On Ukraine, there is very little appetite among the electorate for conflict, as voters oppose ground troops and airstrikes. Only humanitarian aide has widespread support.
UPDATE: Before we talk about these results, let me say a word about some of the other polls we've seen. Point blank, I do not believe certain pollsters are being honest, i.e. Politico/Morning Consult and Marquette. They've got a horrible track record, but there is no chance a methodological error can explain the difference on the Generic Ballot and Presidential Vote Preference. If anything, I think we might've been a little too fair to Democrats overall. For instance, notice the Northeast is about 19% of the sample. We think the Northeast is shrinking, and both the voter file and the census data back up that view. It'll likely be closer to 17%, but we left it as is for now, which benefits Democrats and Biden.
That said, despite the Demediacratic Party's best combined efforts to talk down inflation and shortages, it's very real and causing people who voted for Biden to flee for the hills. Biden voters are actually lying about voting for "someone else" at this point, which is always a very bad sign. Biden's disapproval rating is nearly 60% on just about every single issue we polled. On handling the coronavirus pandemic, he's a net -2 from the Fall 2021 Survey.
Not surprisingly given the closeness of his Covid track and his overall, his approval fell another point while disapproval held firm at 58.6%, giving him a net -20.2%, otherwise stated as Disapprove +20.2%.
Cost of Living / Inflation has overtaken Economy and Jobs as the Most Important Voting Issue for 2022, predictably. Notice how much more Democrats are concerned about Coronavirus than Republican, Independents and Third Party voters. That's another bad sign for Democrats. Why? Because it's a sign they're disconnected from the rest of the country.
Speaking of the Economy, his approval fell from 38.5% to 37.7%, with disapproval rising from 58.7% to 59.4%.
When asked if their "views aligned more closely to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, equally close to the Republican Party and Democratic Party—or, share little in common with either," 32.1% of Independents and Third Party voters chose the Republican Party, while 24.2% chose the Democratic Party. 16.4% said they're equally aligned, while 27.3% share little in common with either party.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.