First, if Donald Trump runs in 2024, he may destroy a thesis-like argument I've been working on for the better part of 10 years. Meaning, he's going to win the dang-gone Popular Vote with a margin in the suburbs as big as Emerson and others, to include ourselves, have been finding.
Hispanics are going to deliver him the Popular Vote, which will run contrary to my census-based argument that it is nearly impossible for a Republican Presidential Candidate to do so.
But as I've always said, the only thing you can count on being consistent about political coalitions is that they consistently change.
That being said, look at the percentage who chose "someone else" in the 2024 hypothetical Trump vs. Biden rematch this month in the Emerson Poll. The percentage fell to just 6.7%, down from the 18% seen here in November.
The latter is much closer to what we have seen, which is why we've just added a Lean Q.
Very interesting. We'll be leaving it in the Q. But I cannot help but wonder whether it's shrinking in our polling, too. Can't wait to find out.
Very interesting, indeed.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.