Streaming Live on Locals to discuss the June 28 Primaries (Supporter Test for New Feature).
Locals Book Club to discuss "Myths of Empire" by Jack Snyder, covering Chapter 3: "Germany and the Pattern of Late Development", to include "Trends in Overexpansion: Provoking Self-Encirclement".
Zoom info for the People's Pundit Locals Book Club to discuss "Myths of Empire" by Jack Snyder, covering Chapter 3: "Germany and the Pattern of Late Development", to include "Trends in Overexpansion: Provoking Self-Encirclement".
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Inside The Numbers LIVE at 12:00 PM EST — Are the midterms really looking less of a Red Wave or is it a summer non-response bias? We’ll discuss it. Plus, privacy rights and the FBI raid on Mira-Lago with David Sinclair of Volta Wireless and Don Smith. https://rumble.com/v1fqvbv-episode-279-inside-the-numbers-with-the-peoples-pundit.html?mref=iec21&mc=bd7nv
I thought this would be a great example to use in order for me to point out some Dos and Don'ts with weighting and polling in general.
First, notice that the unweighted sample for 18-24 is N=53, or just 6.3%. However, they weighted UP to nearly double at 11.5% to attempt to compensate for falling considerably shy of the 12.0% benchmark.
That alone will almost assuredly reduce the weighting efficiency to nearly 90%, which alone would be fine, but it's just one variable. Weighting up by a large factor significantly increases the error rate for the subgroup.
But in fact, 18-44 were all weighted UP, significantly in two age groups.
The raw N=77 for 25-34, or 9.2% of the total sample, was weighted UP to 16.8%, still shy of their 17.6% benchmark.
Given the percentage of independent voters in that age group, they are highly likely to misrepresent vote preference for independents.
What should they have done? Well, given that "70% of completed surveys on cell phones" and "sampling frame was ...