I thought this would be a great example to use in order for me to point out some Dos and Don'ts with weighting and polling in general.
First, notice that the unweighted sample for 18-24 is N=53, or just 6.3%. However, they weighted UP to nearly double at 11.5% to attempt to compensate for falling considerably shy of the 12.0% benchmark.
That alone will almost assuredly reduce the weighting efficiency to nearly 90%, which alone would be fine, but it's just one variable. Weighting up by a large factor significantly increases the error rate for the subgroup.
But in fact, 18-44 were all weighted UP, significantly in two age groups.
The raw N=77 for 25-34, or 9.2% of the total sample, was weighted UP to 16.8%, still shy of their 17.6% benchmark.
Given the percentage of independent voters in that age group, they are highly likely to misrepresent vote preference for independents.
What should they have done? Well, given that "70% of completed surveys on cell phones" and "sampling frame was designed so that nearly every telephone number in Wyoming
had an equal probability of selection for this project", they should've simply trusted that turnout among certain age groups would be lower than the benchmark.
That's what voters are telling them, that is, if that particular Likely Voter Model is worth a pot to piss in, which is another question altogether.
Regardless, considering they also weighted for gender, age, and county, I'm willing to bet their weighting efficiency is in the 80s, and that is not good. While gender was lightly weighted and unlikely to significantly impact efficiency, Albany County was weighted up nearly two-fold and Laramie County was the only large county to be weighted down.
Coupled with the heavy weights on age, I'd be concerned about a big miss if I released this poll.
You cannot weight and extrapolate to compensate. A little rhyme to help us remember that in polling, bigger really is better.
https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/7723
NeverTrump stepped on their own moment!
Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic ahead of his expected announcement that he's dropping out of the presidential race saying of Nikki Haley, "she's gonna get smoked, and you and I both know it."
"She's not up for this."
He further mentions before it drifts off that Ron DeSantis called him "petrified that I would..." AND it fades as they realize the mic is hot.
H/T The Recount
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Economic growth cratered, median home prices soared to a record high—pricing out most norm buyers, especially first-time buyers as mortgage rates rose above 7% (again)—and the U.S. fertility rate fell to an all-time low.
Those are the stats of an unhealthy, even dying nation.
We'll talk about it all tomorrow on Inside The Numbers.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.