Okay, folks. I've been doing something behind your back. Given that Big Data Poll was the one and only poll NOT to understate Trump's support in the Buckeye State in 2020, and frankly has done a better job in most battleground states juxtaposed to media and university polling, I decided to quietly jump into Ohio to test two theories:
1) "GOP pollsters are flooding the zone to push a Red Wave Narrative!"
This is being used by the likes of DEM strategists and political hacks like Tiny Boner from TargetFart.
The second is more a high likelihood than a theory, but nevertheless...
2) The general assumption that media and university polls are once again overstating Democratic support.
I decided on Ohio when I saw Marist/NPR publish a tie along with a slew of other Senate Battleground Polls ALL SHOWING DEM LEADS. You might've noticed I just made a remark about it on Twitter.
CONCLUSION: The Media/University Pollsters are FULL OF SHIT. After speaking to 731 likely voters in Ohio, I decided to weight the results two different ways to see what we found. First, I weighted pretty damn favorably to Tim Ryan for age, race, education and region. Second, we simply deployed our traditional likely voter model. J.D. Vance leads in both scenarios.
Attached you will find a graphic of my forecast for how I believe these polls will perform this cycle. 😉
Below you will find the (first) link to the early simplified results using a weight variable even more favorable to Tim Ryan than initially used for the Vance +6 previously released, and again, more favorable than the electorate in 2018.
Regardless, the lead for Vance still only declines to 5 points, or Vance +4.7%. However, the 5.4% undecided voters remain highly unfavorable to Ryan and present rich targets for Vance.
https://application.marketsight.com/app/ItemView.aspx?SharedFor=public%40bigdatapoll.com&SharedBy=34090&id=b89811b3-ec16-4665-970d-af44012c8255
Here is the latest update with the most likely electorate not weighted to be more favorable to Tim Ryan. As you can see, J.D. Vance's lead not only increases by roughly 2 points BUT his support rises above 50%. There are still 5.4% undecided and they are still overwhelmingly favorable to him, not Ryan, increasing the likelihood his margin increases to 8-10 percent.
Polling errors have varied by region, with the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic and Florida being among the worst. Still, this would suggest we're headed for another polling error. Though the size and scope are unclear, it's fairly likely to be rather significant for many in certain states.
NeverTrump stepped on their own moment!
Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic ahead of his expected announcement that he's dropping out of the presidential race saying of Nikki Haley, "she's gonna get smoked, and you and I both know it."
"She's not up for this."
He further mentions before it drifts off that Ron DeSantis called him "petrified that I would..." AND it fades as they realize the mic is hot.
H/T The Recount
I present to you my daughters "Christmas Bomb"
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Trump is coming out swinging against the tik tok ban. Between this and Gaza Biden has an issue. If he was smart he would say “if they can give away all this money for foreign wars then they should have a program for student loans and a program to help young people buy a home”.
If he did that team Biden would go into def con 7.
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.