News • Politics • Culture
The People's Pundit Community is dedicated to data journalism covering politics, elections, opinion polls, policy, business, the economy and markets, as well as unprecedented and unbiased discussions on polling and election projection models.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
Look What Maricopa Lake Haters Have

This photo was taken at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center. The policy is not to allow people to take pictures, but to Hell with them and that. It was about 100ft from where all the BOD printers and tabulators are stored.

Read the title. No wonder they do not allow photos in MCTEC.

Now, why would they be so interested in this?


post photo preview
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Live Streamed on October 2, 2023 2:00 PM ET
Episode 400: Inside The Numbers With The People's Pundit

LIVE at 2:00 PM EST — The RFK Effect in the Rust Belt and beyond. Plus, Pennsylvania auto-registration update and… How to beat Trump in a primary alludes everyone.

4Patriots Survival Food Kits
Enter Promo Code TPP10 to get 10% off all other orders!

Jam N’ Bean
Enter Promo Code TPP40 & GET 40% 1st subscription, 10% on renewals!

Support the Public Polling Project!

Not a Locals Supporter Yet?


September 28, 2023
Did Ron DeSantis "Ban Fracking" in Florida?

Nikki Haley claimed Ron DeSantis "banned fracking" during the second presidential debate last night. It's not totally fair, but there's absolutely truth to it.

Firstly, while running for governor, DeSantis’ promised on his campaign website to "work to ban fracking" in Florida:

"With Florida’s geological makeup of limestone and shallow water sources, fracking presents a danger to our state that is not acceptable. On Day 1, Ron DeSantis will advocate to the Florida Legislature to pass legislation that bans fracking in the state."

He signed Executive Order 19-12 two days after taking office directing the Department of Environmental Protection to "take necessary actions to adamantly oppose all off-shore oil and gas activities off every coast in Florida and hydraulic fracturing in Florida."

New oil and gas permits had to include provisions forbidding the use of fracking, but pre-approved fracking still occurs.

However, DeSantis' rebuttal claiming voters approved an amendment in 2018 banning...

Live Streamed on September 25, 2023 1:59 PM ET
September 25, 2023
Episode 398: Inside The Numbers With The People's Pundit

LIVE at 12:00 PM EST — Joe Kent on the budget fight, Ukraine and 2024! Plus, making sense of the polls, and more.

4Patriots Survival Food Kits
Enter Promo Code TPP10 to get 10% off all other orders!

Jam N’ Bean
Enter Promo Code TPP40 & GET 40% 1st subscription, 10% on renewals!

Support the Public Polling Project!

Not a Locals Supporter Yet?


Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

Support the Public Polling Project

Locals Communities​​​​​​​​

Like on Facebook

Follow on Twitter​​​​​​​​

Theme Song: "Highway" By Grammy Considered Bowen Band

Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?
House Votes to Remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker

The Motion to Vacate the Office of Speaker passed 216 to 210 to. Kevin McCarthy has been ousted as speaker.

More than a 100 years ago, Speaker Joseph Gurney Cannon, R-Ill., essentially dared the House to vote to vacate the chair, but he survived the vote.

Today, 8 Republicans joined Democrats to remove the House Speaker for the first time in U.S. history.

It's history.

1) If McCarthy acted on political weaponization, perhaps Trump wouldn't have been too busy, too unwilling to save him.

2) McCarthy and McConnell sabotaged MAGA in 2022 to avoid this very outcome.

Many trash Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., to avoid discussing the real cause of dysfunction.

Republicans have a representation problem, i.e. they have none. They lie to get elected and ostracize anyone trying to keep promises.

No political party can survive NOT representing their voters.

Republican leadership and the vast majority of the elected conference in both chambers lie to get elected, then cave in the face of opposition from media ...

McCarthy Is In Real Trouble

Donald Trump may need to personally save Kevin McCarthy.

They have the votes, as of now.

Stay tuned.

McCarthy Not Running for Speaker Again

McCarthy just told the conference he will not run again for Speaker. Walked in with a quit speech.

post photo preview
Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
Read full Article
post photo preview
A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
Read full Article
post photo preview
Why Donald Trump Is Heavily Favored to Win the Republican Nomination
Trump Has Crossed Two Very Historically Significant Milestones

I'll be discussion this subject matter in a lot more detail in the coming days on Inside The Numbers, but it's noteworthy and needed to be introduced in an article on Locals. After all, Locals First!

Donald Trump has secured more than 60 endorsements from "elected" Republicans holding national and gubernatorial office. I've heard it's possible he'll get to 70 by the end of this week. Why does that matter, given he didn't win with endorsements in 2015-2016?

For starters, he did better with endorsements than most people realize. Many early backers were unconventional endorsements, i.e. celebrities, sports figures, etc. But that's not the central point. No candidate in over four decades has ever gone on to lose their party nomination with this many endorsements at this point.

Yes, even this early in the nomination process.

As I have stated over and over—despite what you hear from DeSantis supporters on Fox News and Twitter—it is not true early frontrunners do not end up securing their party nominations, especially not when you can arguably consider Trump an incumbent rather than a non-incumbent.

The former president is certainly a known quantity on the national stage and there is no uncertainty over whether he will weather the scrunity that comes from being a top-tier candidate, both being key benefits of incumbency. But let's pretend for this discussion that we cannot and do not consider him an incumbent.

Regarding the polling, it's a little more complicated, though we're dealing with the same flawed assumptions among DeSantis surrogates and the timeframe is technically the same. While it's true declared and potential candidates polling at around 20% at this point typically have a roughly 20% chance of winning the nomination, there are mitigating factors at play this time.

Trump's polling lead is not historically normal even for a frontrunner. His dominance in our latest poll is a strong indication people are digging in their heels, as are the interviews I monitor, mode-depending. Some of them I've shared with all of you during the live show. No non-incumbent candidate polling at or above 50% at this point has lost the nomination in the modern era.

Yes, even this early in the nomination process.

The oft-cited analogy to Rudy Giuliani is grossly flawed. He never polled at these levels and in truth struggled to hold even a third of the primary vote before he lost the lead and eventually the nomination. The same is true of the equally cited example of Hillary Clinton in 2008.

DeSantis' roughly 20% historical likelihood for prior candidates polling at roughly 20% is essentially rendered irrelevant by the fact Trump is at 50% or higher. The window to seize on an opportunity to consolidate anti-frontrunner support has all but closed, if it hasn't been shut altogether. It's no longer a question of persuading Trump-fatigued voters.

Now, Trump's primary opponent must change decided voters' minds, a far more difficult task.

The Republican primary electorate is not a general election electorate. Working class voters will play deciding roles in several key early states. In our latest poll, Trump now enjoys his largest lead yet among this group, an astonishing 54 points, or 64.8% to 10.9%. Among white working class, it's an eye-popping 58 points, 69.2% to 11.4%. To put it plainly, not enough of these voters are going to change their minds. His lead hasn't fallen below 30 points with this demographic to date.

That leaves the only viable path to defeating Trump one that requires dominating among college educated primary voters, which still requires a tightening among non-college voters. But even among college educated primary voters, Trump's support has steadily improved since January 2023. He now leads with college voters by a margin that mirrors his floor with non-college voters.

And it's not just the polling.

The endorsement milestone is significant because there are not one BUT two key indicators for predicting presidential nominations heavily favoring the former president. Endorsements tend to snowball, hence the major endorsement from NRSC Chair Senator Steve Daines of Montana.

That all being said, it's unclear what they will throw at this guy next. It's possible one of these ahistorical legal attacks finally land a blow. But the Limbaugh Rule has held for nearly 7 years, and we should all be very skeptical of any outside influence's ability to break the deep connection Trump has with Republican voters. If he remains loyal to them, there's little reason—as in, we have zero reason—to believe they won't remain loyal to him.

P.S. I've added more to the crosstabs for the Polling Project May 2023. It's linked below for supporters.

Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
Read full Article
See More
Available on mobile and TV devices
google store google store app store app store
google store google store app tv store app tv store amazon store amazon store roku store roku store
Powered by Locals