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Poll: 2024 Hypothetical General Election Matchups

The Public Polling Project conducted by Big Data Poll finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 7 points (rounded) in our May 2024 Hypothetical General Matchup. The former president takes 45.0% of the early likely general electorate, up from 43.8% in March-April. The current president trails with 38.1%, up slightly from 37.4% in March-April.

Biden leads Ron DeSantis by 4 points (rounded) after the two were statistically tied last month. The Democratic incumbent still only earns 38.6%, a marginal increase from 38.3%. The Florida governor trails at 35.1%, down nearly 3 points from 37.7%.

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Chris Christie Caught on Hot Mic: Nikki Haley "Gonna Get Smoked"

NeverTrump stepped on their own moment!

Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic ahead of his expected announcement that he's dropping out of the presidential race saying of Nikki Haley, "she's gonna get smoked, and you and I both know it."

"She's not up for this."

He further mentions before it drifts off that Ron DeSantis called him "petrified that I would..." AND it fades as they realize the mic is hot.

H/T The Recount

December 21, 2023
My daughter Sabrina made what she told me was a "transitional video"

I present to you my daughters "Christmas Bomb"

Live Streamed on November 22, 2023 11:59 AM ET
NEW Rust Belt Poll Results, Plus Q&A | Inside The Numbers Ep. 420

LIVE #InsideTheNumbers at 12PM EST — BRAND NEW Rust Belt Poll results for Michigan and Ohio! Plus, Friday Q&A.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Dr. Steve Turley covers how the Deep State got to Johnson.

9 hours ago

Trump is coming out swinging against the tik tok ban. Between this and Gaza Biden has an issue. If he was smart he would say “if they can give away all this money for foreign wars then they should have a program for student loans and a program to help young people buy a home”.

If he did that team Biden would go into def con 7.

@PeoplesPundit @LauraBaris

Just dropped today - BLACK MAGA Song — this has GOT TO be sending Biden Administration into catatonic frenzy 🙀

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How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
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Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

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A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

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