Now that the charade is over and we know Trump will be indicted federally, if the polls do not radically change, the Republican Party has a serious problem and will likely end up fractured.
Let's take something Chris Christie said to use as an explainer. When asked what he would do to win over "Trump voters", he responded with contempt that he rejected the term because "he doesn't own them [voters]."
No, he doesn't.
But only the political and ruling class doesn't understand that his connection to these voters is not about ownership. To explain, let's break down "Trump voters" into two broad categories.
1. Mid-to-High propensity, mid-to-long term REP/REP-leaning voters who hate their leaders and their own party because they betray and fail them over and over.
2. Lower propensity to new voters, who have no real loyalty to the party and only vote Republican if and when he's on the ballot.
If we are to assume Trump is taken out via Lawfare, as multiple opponents have assured donors he will be for months, most of these voters will never vote for the "replacement" because they have no rational policy reason to do so.
That term may be unfamiliar to most, or to others they cannot understand how it would be the case. Their lives have not gotten better under anyone but him, thus they do not think like partisans, even if they are 1) who technically are partisans.
If Republicans thought the Ross Perot fracture was devastating to their national viability, this will be a diverse that make 1992 look like a lover's spat.
They feel he fought for them, and now he's being persecuted and prosecuted for it. Large numbers of them will just write him in if they successfully remove him from the ballot, and large numbers would just stay home. What they will not do, is support those who banked on him being prosecuted.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.