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Russian President Vladimir Putin Speech Translations

Vladimir Putin addressed the nation of Russia Monday evening, local time. I typed as fast as I possibly could listening to the translator, and here's the text:

"There has been a tremendous coming together of society, a unification of society. There has been a firm support of the constitutional order by all the leading parties. All of them have been united in the face of the responsibility to defend the Fatherland."

"The organizers of this rebellion must understand they will be brought to justice. This is criminal activity and it must be punished. This was a colossal threat and it was a threat from the outside. However, the organizers of this rebellion have betrayed these people who were dragged into this organization. This kind of suicide is precisely what the Neo-Nazis here and in the West wanted. They wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other, for servicemen and civilians to be killed."

Ultimately, they wanted Russia to fail, our society to be fragmented, to be splintered. They wanted to take revenge for their failures at the front. But they slipped up. They made a mistake, especially with regard to the special services, which maintained their oath to the country... The courage, the sacrifice of the people of these organizations saved the Fatherland."

"At the same time, we learned that the overwhelmingly majority of Wagner group are also patriots to the country. They have proven their courage in defending Donbas and yet were encouraged to fight against their compatriots. By turning back, they avoided further bloodshed."

"We also have to talk about the people who decided to take these actions, which would have had tragic and devastating consequences for Russia as a whole. I should like to thank those commanders and soldiers in PMC Wagner Group who made the right decision to stop, go back and prevent bloodshed."

"I urge all of them to make contact with the Ministry of Defense or go back to their homes. This promise will be fulfilled. I repeat, it is the choice of each of you, a choice of the warriors of Russia who have acknowledged their fault."

"President Lukashenko also should be recognized for his role in achieving a peaceful resolution. It is the patriotic duty of everyone which has saved us and has saved the country as a whole."

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My Polling Is "Nothing But a G-Thing Baby"

I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...

We were SO right.

Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.

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Holiday Fundraiser Winner Drawing

Here it is!

Unfortunately, none of us won it. But you all raised $345 for dancers on the team. Here is my daughter and two of her team members doing the drawing for the winner.

Ofc, we got their parents' permissions to show them.

Thank you all!

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Mitt Romney Bids Farewell to the U.S. Senate

Mitt Romney bids farewell to the U.S. Senate, potentially marking the end of an era for Rockefeller Republicanism.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?
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How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
 
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
 
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
 
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
 
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
 
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
 
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
 
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
 
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
 
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
 
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
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Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

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A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

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