Larry Sabato is sounding a little scared, folks. But at least he's being honest, which is something he's struggled to do since the advent of Donald Trump.
Of course it means a victory in the Electoral College. The final NYT/Siena Poll in 2020 was Biden +9, 50 percent to 41 percent.
UPDATE: Notice the NYT highlighted REPs/INDs who voted for Biden in 2020 and would stick with him in 2024.
Except, Trump is ahead by 6 points among "new" voters and has more of his 2020 (91%) base locked up than Biden (87%).
Trump also has more of his party and is only -3 among Hispanics.
This is a Trump win.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
Support the Public Polling Project
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/public-polling-project/
Locals Communities
https://peoplespundit.locals.com/
https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/
Like on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesPunditDaily
Follow on Twitter
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law
Theme Song: "Highway" By Grammy Considered Bowen Band
https://www.chrisbowenband.com/
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.