I'm going to start debunking polling misinformation, more colloquially known as bullshit from fake polling experts. First up, my good ole' friend-turned-DeSantis rider, Ryan Girdusky.
1) NYT percentage of undecideds is actually quite normal this far from a general presidential election, especially when the target population is all registered voters or adults, even with high name ID.
Nothing uncommon about it, at all. Obama was an incumbent president, while Romney was the de-facto "my turn runner-up" inevitable Republican nominee. Everyone knew him.
Rasmussen (LVs) had Obama and Romney in the low 40s at this point in 2011. Quinnipiac was tied at 45%. ABC/WaPo, which tends to have less undecideds than others, had the same undecided percentage in 8/21 than they had in the recent Trump +7 they released. Fox, McClatchy, etc. same thing. The Quinnipiac Poll the month before is exactly the same margin as that ABC/WaPo Poll.
Methodology greatly impacts the number of undecideds, but they are more significant early, and often they and third party support don't shrink significantly until the summer/fall before the election.
All that being said, 14% are not undecided in this poll. Learn how to read a crosstab, jackass. A whopping 4% are truly undecided. Another 4% goes to third party candidates. The rest are "not voting", which is HALF the number who would sit it out if DeSantis is the nominee.
2) Chris Wilson has been calling Harvard-Harris Polls "trash", among others, and one of his oft-cited arguments is because Trump is within 10 points or so of Biden among voters 18-29.
Well, now even the NYT Poll shows it, though nobody has made a peep about the margin being pro-Biden among seniors 65+. The truth is that SAMPLING ERRORS FOR SUBGROUPS ARE HIGHER and these things tend to work themselves out in the end. It does not mean the poll is "trash".
Final thoughts: These people are so full of shit.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
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Theme Song: "Highway" By Grammy Considered Bowen Band
https://www.chrisbowenband.com/
Kennedy's out there doing gods work.
Crushing hospital incentives to mandate doctors/nurses get covid vaxxed.
RFK Jr whole HHS team💪
BTFOs whole med superstructure🤣
Rest of the admin👎
https://x.com/SecKennedy/status/1951372406968164599?t=giU1xvoiHjQnvmgMHzrS3g&s=19
I wonder sometimes if Trump likes getting his ass kicked nationally and worldwide🤔
He COULD have this success too!!
I worked as a bouncer when I was young (I was 6'1" and 250lbs so avg large but nothing special) and big guys are used to being big and so they get a certain amount of prestige without ever having to prove themselves a threat. I found that if I gave big guys a chance to back down without losing face the vast majority would see the wisdom in that path.
The whole reason Russia has been slow rolling the Ukraine war has been to give Trump an easy out and the stupid arrogant ass cannot see it. I will bet any amount of money that Trump has never in his life been in a real fist fight and yet he is trying to intimidate a man who even though he is half Trump's size he would physically level Trump in a actual fight. And then back that up with Russia having More missiles that are newer technology than the USA.
Like in the movie "WARGAMES" the only way to win is to NOT play the game.
Pray that someone with sense can talk it into Trump...
*I would put money on Putin kicking my ass too, but I ...
TROUBLE IN UTAH: AAG Dhillon DEMANDS VOTER REGISTRATION FILES FROM LT. GOV. DEIDRE
Buhaha. Let the games begin.
Follow this thread: https://x.com/AndrewPiskadlo/status/1951451189746475310
I walk through exactly what DOJ is alleging—and what Utah’s been hiding.
Deidre Henderson has until July 29 to cough up:
Full statewide voter file
Duplicate & invalid registrants
Breakdown of non-citizen, felony, and incompetency flags
Data Utah falsely reported to the feds (263.7% removal discrepancy)
📄 DOJ letter:
All attached
📊 Removal data (EAVS):
Utah’s voter roll removals = 0.8% of total voters
Yet Utah reported removing 45,342 via confirmation notice → actual number: 17,196
(Find them attached)
📜 State law:
Ineligible voters = non-citizens, felons (without rights restored), and institutionalized persons.
Utah reported no categorized data for most counties.
🎭 Memes aside, this is serious:
Utah may be in noncompliance with NVRA, with evidence of systemic reporting fraud to federal agencies.
If DOJ ...
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.