PEOPLE'S PUNDIT
Politics • Culture • News
The People's Pundit Community is dedicated to data journalism covering politics, elections, opinion polls, policy, business, the economy and markets, as well as unprecedented and unbiased discussions on polling and election projection models.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
Even After Three Indictments, Trump Support Rises: I&I/TIPP Poll; DeSantis Falls to Only 12%

If being thrice-indicted for alleged felonies is fatal to one’s political career, you couldn’t tell by former President Donald Trump. He’s still riding a wave of popularity within his party, and continues to maintain a comfortable lead over potential rivals for the Republican Party nomination in 2024, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

In recent months, I&I/TIPP has polled members of both major political parties and independents on their nominee preferences. What is surprising is not only has Trump held on to his lead among likely Republican voters, he has expanded it.

Our latest national online poll, taken from Aug. 2-4, included a total 1,253 registered voters. Among those polled were 529 Republicans or independents who lean Republican. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentages points.

Among that group, 57% said they would support Trump for president. That compares to 53% in July and 55% in June. So, if anything, Trump’s party support is strengthening, not weakening.

Moreover, Trump’s main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, appears to be losing steam. Some 12% of GOP voters in August said they would vote for DeSantis, down from 14% in July and 19% in June.

Only one potential rival seems to be rising in the polls: Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, who garners 8% support in August, up from 7% in July and just 2% in June, when he was a new face. He now stands in third place, just behind DeSantis.

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/08/14/even-after-three-indictments-trump-support-rises-ii-tipp-poll/

Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
My Polling Is "Nothing But a G-Thing Baby"

I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...

We were SO right.

Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.

00:00:45
Holiday Fundraiser Winner Drawing

Here it is!

Unfortunately, none of us won it. But you all raised $345 for dancers on the team. Here is my daughter and two of her team members doing the drawing for the winner.

Ofc, we got their parents' permissions to show them.

Thank you all!

00:02:06
Mitt Romney Bids Farewell to the U.S. Senate

Mitt Romney bids farewell to the U.S. Senate, potentially marking the end of an era for Rockefeller Republicanism.

00:08:09
Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

Support the Public Polling Project
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/public-polling-project/

Locals Communities
https://peoplespundit.locals.com/​​​​
https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/​​​​

Like on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesPunditDaily

Follow on Twitter
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit​​​​
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law​​​​

Theme Song: "Highway" By Grammy Considered Bowen Band
https://www.chrisbowenband.com/

Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?
post photo preview
How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
 
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
 
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
 
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
 
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
 
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
 
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
 
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
 
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
 
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
 
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
Read full Article
post photo preview
Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
Read full Article
post photo preview
A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
Read full Article
See More
Available on mobile and TV devices
google store google store app store app store
google store google store app tv store app tv store amazon store amazon store roku store roku store
Powered by Locals