Folks, there is drama and questions surrounding the latest round of polling in New Hampshire. Again, the abuse and manipulation of polls certainly occurs on both sides, but the Right continues to be the major purveyors.
There are FOUR polls currently comprising the RCP Average, attached for review. The results range from Trump +14 to Trump +30. Without discussing specifics and dates, there is an argument to be made that Nikki Haley is gaining momentum in the Granite State.
The CBS News Poll (Trump +15) started this speculation and St. Anselm Poll (Trump +14) continued it. There were questions surrounding both these polls, the former being far more moderate than previous recent electorates and the latter surveying Democrats and including them in the sample when the deadline for registered Democrats under the Modified/Semi-Open Primary system has passed.
But then the UMass Poll was released showing Trump with a 30-point lead. John Cluverius, the UMass Lowell director of survey research and an associate professor of political science, said the following about the possibility Haley was catching fire.
“Despite an endorsement from Sununu – whom the poll found enjoys an 80% favorability rating among respondents – and her attempt to thread the needle on abortion, she can’t seem to close the deal.”
Within an hour or so, ARG (American Research Group) released bare bones results showing Haley within 3 points of Trump. Folks, the coordination of messaging with the release of that poll right after the Trump +30 UMass Lowell Poll was released, is very suspect.
UMass Lowell put out crosstabs, a detailed methodology and met basic AAPOR standards of disclosure. The other did not and was pushed by Sununu-friendly media locally and anti-Trump media nationally, to include Mediate and FOX News, outlets which are ignoring the UMass Lowell Poll. Even worse with respect to FOX, the network has standards on reporting on polls, and ARG does not meet them. In others words, they're pushing what they do not consider to be a reputable poll anymore and are breaking their own guidelines for reporting on certain polls.
This is very clearly intended to benefit Nikki Haley.
Some actors are just bad actors, but others legitimately need to learn how to smell bullshit when it's right under their nose. From where I am standing, it stinks to High Heaven.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
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Like I said in the video this morning, I was thinking that I'd very much like to do a fairly large study on political violence as quickly as possible, perhaps even this weekend.
It may fail miserably, but we all know there are deeply concerning, large swathes of the population who believe that using political violence is justified.
We should be adding to this discussion in a positive way before this moment passes and it was all for nothing. I truly feel that we gave this issue a pass after Butler, in part because of the election and in part because President Donald Trump survived that assassination attempt.
It was a grave error I'll regret, forever.
When I get back, I'll go over some proposed changes to make it look better and do a media round if possible to promote it. But for now, please like, share and contribute to the campaign. Let's get it as funded as we can and get it done.
P.S. It can also be found on the Public Polling Project's main page, but this will be the main url....
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.