The polling gimmicks this cycle are already on pace to blow 2016 and 2020 out of the water.
Arguments can be made for both those cycles that many pollsters didn't know better and were struggling to deal with changing dynamics.
That is NOT the case this cycle. All should know better.
All should know polls are SNAP SHOTS IN TIME and meaningless if withheld for weeks, nearly a month in one case, producing misleading, even meaningless results that are borderline propagandist in nature.
All should know that you cannot PUSH respondents with culturally and politically sensitive topics of race and gender, then report the PUSH as the actual result.
All should know that you cannot front load questions that inject bias, something they should've learned as an undergrad.
All should acknowledge the existence of and know how to recognize the very real and various forms of response bias, which produce unrealistic results that are in fact artificial changes in data such as voter preference.
Gear up for what could prove to be the worst polling miss witnessed yet.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
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Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.