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Clark Mail Update

Spoke with someone in Clark.

That 35k was it for Clark yesterday. 45k I posted on X was a typo from a clerk. I was expecting more mail for that day today, but...

Mail turnout for Dems in the bluest areas was lower than expected.

No ballots appear to be accepted today. They are just staging machines for Tuesday.

Mail will continue to drop in but that really does appear to be it for weekend.

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What Are The Odds: Is Harris Going Down Worse than Hillary?
00:01:14
September 22, 2024
Tucker Shouts Out 10X Votes in Michigan

Hey folks,

Tucker Carlson shouted out 10X Votes in Michigan this weekend. The website is still getting a new user every few seconds.

This is how you humiliate the polls. Best thing about it, there's no consultant money in 10X Votes. Only results to be had.

P.S. The right has a real grifter and consultant problem. Despite it NOT being in my financial interests, I turned down working with probably a half dozen projects because I didn't believe in them. I did work with 10X because 1) the people involved aren't out to make money and 2) it's approach is based on a wealth of behavioral research regarding right vs. leftwing voters.

https://www.10xvotes.com/

00:02:33
September 02, 2024
Kamala Harris Appears on South Park

Ya know, Benny Johnson just reminded me about how Kamala Harris repeatedly said, "I'm speaking" or "Can I finish" during the debate with Mike Pence in 2020.

And then, that in turn, reminded me of this. Tell me it's not legit what she did.

Someone should absolutely make a meme out of this and replace Kamala with the Canadian Minister. If I had time, I would use an AI tool to change the voices and the photoshop her and Trump into the video.

Hell, she's even Canadian AND pretends to be offended by racist remarks that actually aren't racist.

00:01:00
Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?

Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.

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Barnes and Baris Episode 29: What Are the Odds?
Trump at 50% in Final ECU Poll

Trump at 50% in ECU Poll. These are good folks who try to do the best job they can. ECU had Biden +2 in 2020. https://www.reflector.com/news/local/ecu-poll-trump-up-by-2-points-in-nc/article_56b27f70-9ab2-11ef-bfe6-cf5d1bfd3e05.html

7 hours ago

Rogan endorsement last minute before the bros go out to vote.

He’s telling them to stop playing call of duty, and get your ass to the polling booth.

Michigan Voter Analysis Report for No to Low Propensity Voters 11-02-14

Normally this would be for supporters only, but I want everyone to see how much a GOTV effort from a group like 10XVotes.com can change the game.

This is the list of Already Voted we're tracking on a target population of low and no propensity voters the group wanted to increase participation amongst.

Just a few FYIs, first.

1. Democrats absolutely slapped Republicans with this group in 2020.

2. Michigan is a no party registration state, and as people who have followed me for a while known, inference models in these states can often overstate Democratic infers, and Michigan is no difference. Macomb, for instance, is inferred as majority Democratic, though Trump carried it with majorities in both 2016 and 2020. There are a lot of counties like that in Michigan.

So, here it is.

If the 1.7M target population being monitored, as of this morning 428,739 have Already Voted. Of that, Republicans (35.16%) lead Democrats (32.16%) this year by about 3 points, which is interestingly, just above...

Voter_Analysis_Report_-_Michigan_-_Low_Prop_Already_Voted_11-2-24.pdf
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How Trump's Union Support Could Prove Vital in 2024
Trump's Rank-and-File Roundtable with Teamsters Is Smart and Fitting
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump met privately with Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien ahead of a rank-and-file roundtable this month. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the influential labor organization said it was "an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union."
 
“There are serious issues that need to addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said. “We thank the former President for taking time during this private meeting to listen to the Teamsters’ top priorities. And we are eager to bring together the rank-and-file for an important and necessary roundtable with President Trump this month.”
 
Democratic users and influencers on the social media site were quick to criticize the union in a flurry of replies and quote reposts. But while X is "real" as opposed to "fake" in a broader context, it is hardly representative of an electorate or even an organization.
 
So, what does the data say about the viability of this potential relationship?
 
In 2016, the then-Republican nominee for president did very well with unions, more specifically private sector unions. National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison Research found Hillary Clinton carried union households by just 5 points, 51% to 46%. President Trump carried all non-union households by a 6-point margin, 48% to 42%.
 
But in 2020, Democrats leaned on leadership to put the screws to rank-and-file members, much like they are in the replies here, and union support for the then-incumbent eroded. In our most recent poll conducted in December, all union households told us they voted for President Biden over President Trump 57.5% to 36.6%, a nearly identical margin (56% to 40%) published by the exit polls. Given subgroup sampling errors are higher, it's more than safe to concede the result is representative.
 
In addition to collecting surface-level data on union versus non-union households, BIG DATA POLL also collects data by union type: public, private, and both (dual). For the record, non-union voters back President Trump over President Biden 52.5% to 47.5% after essentially splitting their vote in 2020, a result also identical to the exit polls.
 
Private sector unions who claimed to have voted for President Biden 54.6% to 37.0% now only back him 51.5% to 48.5%, a significantly narrower margin fueled by both a decline in support for the current president and a significant gain in support for the former. The margin among all union households is starting to more closely resemble 2016 than 2020. Considering the survey overstated support for the Democratic candidate, there is a good argument to make that President Trump is now performing even stronger against President Biden than he did against Mrs. Clinton among union households.
 
While public sector union voters obviously are more likely to maintain support for President Biden—still backing him 57.8% to 42.2%—his advantage is slightly narrower than the 59.6% to 36.9% edge he held over the former president in 2020. Moreover, dual households actually break for President Trump 53.1% to 46.9%, though sample size for this subgroup is small. Undecideds voters from all three household types actually break for the 45th President when leaned.
 
President Trump has reportedly committed to another roundtable sit down with rank-and-file Teamsters, General President O’Brien, and General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman in January. The event will be held at the Teamsters’ international headquarters in Washington, D.C. Despite what social media interactions might suggest, the data clearly indicates this is a no-brainer.
 
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has more than 1 million members nationally and a not-so insignificant number in several key battleground states. Further, the organization has known its fair share of government persecution, fair and unfair. Politics make strange bedfellows and we've seen stranger. But in this case, a potential relationship would not only seem to be a good fit, but a politically smart move.
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Polling Misinformation Alert: 'Unskew' the Polls Returns
Partisans Desperate to Explain Away Pro-Trump Trends Violate Key Industry Norms

Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.

The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.

I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.

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A Commentary on the Presidential Vote Preference Trend, 2020 - Present
Biden v. Trump in 2024 is NOT the Same Race as 2020

Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.

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