I'll just past what I wrote on X for those not on the platform. But this was a very important post about what Harry Enten does with his little segments on CNN, which is disruptive and harmful to political discourse and the polling industry. I will also link to the original tweet on X from @GenXGirl1994.
"Good attempt, one to be applauded. But with respect, still missing the bigger picture.
What Harry Enten does is essentially the opposite of what
@RCPolling / @RCPolitics does with aggregates and more importantly, what he's doing is the reason why aggregates are needed.
Let me explain.
But first, it needs to be said that Harry Enten polls nothing. Like Nate Silver before him, he is not a pollster and has no idea HOW to poll a population and is falsely presented to the audience as a polling guru.
He is not.
What Harry does is selectively cherry pick results from various pollsters who aren't even comparable in track record, methodology, etc. Essentially trustworthiness. He does not present his conclusions in proper context and they are frequently (likely intentionally) intended to mislead people with false conclusions at best derived from erroneous apples 🍎 to oranges 🍊 comparisons.
Of note, there are only a handful of us who polled the 2024 election correctly, and even fewer who have polled the Trump Coalition correctly for a decade.
Harry has never cited any of us.
The entire reason RCP designed the polling averages was to iron out errors and outliers to present a more accurate picture in the form of an average error.
As I take a chapter to explain in "Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Americans Really Want", this was BADLY needed for the industry, and literally saved the reliability of something so important as the generic ballot with the advent of their averages in the early 2000s.
He is literally cherry picking incomparable datapoints from incomplete datasets for headlines and deception. And he does so without explaining those differences and error track records. It is the OPPOSITE of what RCP, and now others such as DDHQ, are trying to do and it is harmful to the industry and public policy because it deceives policy decision-makers.
This is what explains his seemingly incompatible segments week to week. It's easy to dupe people into one conclusion just to defy it the very next week with an opposition view when you are doing that."
Opium Production in Afghanistan Cratered Following U.S. Withdrawal | Side Stories on Between the Numbers
Former CIA Officer John Kiriakou recently told Tucker Carlson a story about opium production in Afghanistan.
It skyrocketed after the invasion and cratered once the U.S. withdrew. The U.S. government has a long, dark and ugly history of selling drugs.
The One-Two Combo that Knocked Out MAGA + What's the Difference Between Ignorance and Stupidity?
#Epstein set it up with a left jab... POP 🤛! Iran came with the big overhand right... and POW 👊!
Down went #MAGA. Count to 10. Hell, count to 100. It's over.
Watch Live 3:00 PM EST — Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss in detail bombshell results within the Public Polling Project for Early Spring 2021, and more civil unrest amid the trial of Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd.
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This is an interesting one for you guys to follow, and is an "odd" Trump endorsement given his desire to constantly have a perfect or "near perfect" record on endorsements. One could argue it's the consultants getting payback for the money Randy Feenstra has spent on their invoices, but honestly I can't confirm that and do not yet know. I'll try to figure that out.
However, this poll suggests Feenstra was down to businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, 27%-24%, over the two days PRIOR to the endorsement. In all honesty folks, Randy has run a really terrible campaign and Lahn is flush with cash from self-funding and outraising Feenstra.
Republicans have internally been hitting the panic button on this race for months. I cannot understate how badly this campaign was run.
Can't the president's mark dramatically change the race?
Well, yes.
Data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office shows county auditors had received 17,908 Republican ballots as of the morning of May 29. For comparison, just ...
"13 races to watch in California, Iowa, New Jersey & elsewhere" is the DDHQ preview on DDHQ Votes, the tool we use to show you results.
I've been a little derelict in sharing them, but need to start.
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/june-2-primary-california-iowa-montana-new-jersey-new-mexico-south-dakota
The American dream is getting harder to reach for regular people. Most incubators chase the next AI app or sit in research mode. My crew at Pioneering Deep Tech Institute is laser-focused on building hard things that bring the American dream within reach for regular people
 The F-35 priced past two trillion and performs like garbage when it matters. AI data centers cannot handle real workloads no matter how many nuclear plants get spun up to feed them. They hallucinate at 38 percent on domain-specific tasks. They cannot replace experienced people and never will. But scared managers under pressure from above lay off experienced workers anyway. Low-hire, low-fire. The remaining team buckles. The cycle starts over.
We need fresh companies that ship physical products and employ Americans.
PDTI begins its initial 2 million dollar fundraising round while we await the IRS Reaffirmation Letter on our 501(c)(3) continuity. Seven capability clusters: Compute & Data, Robotics & Mechatronics, Materials & ...
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.