I'll just past what I wrote on X for those not on the platform. But this was a very important post about what Harry Enten does with his little segments on CNN, which is disruptive and harmful to political discourse and the polling industry. I will also link to the original tweet on X from @GenXGirl1994.
"Good attempt, one to be applauded. But with respect, still missing the bigger picture.
What Harry Enten does is essentially the opposite of what
@RCPolling / @RCPolitics does with aggregates and more importantly, what he's doing is the reason why aggregates are needed.
Let me explain.
But first, it needs to be said that Harry Enten polls nothing. Like Nate Silver before him, he is not a pollster and has no idea HOW to poll a population and is falsely presented to the audience as a polling guru.
He is not.
What Harry does is selectively cherry pick results from various pollsters who aren't even comparable in track record, methodology, etc. Essentially trustworthiness. He does not present his conclusions in proper context and they are frequently (likely intentionally) intended to mislead people with false conclusions at best derived from erroneous apples 🍎 to oranges 🍊 comparisons.
Of note, there are only a handful of us who polled the 2024 election correctly, and even fewer who have polled the Trump Coalition correctly for a decade.
Harry has never cited any of us.
The entire reason RCP designed the polling averages was to iron out errors and outliers to present a more accurate picture in the form of an average error.
As I take a chapter to explain in "Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Americans Really Want", this was BADLY needed for the industry, and literally saved the reliability of something so important as the generic ballot with the advent of their averages in the early 2000s.
He is literally cherry picking incomparable datapoints from incomplete datasets for headlines and deception. And he does so without explaining those differences and error track records. It is the OPPOSITE of what RCP, and now others such as DDHQ, are trying to do and it is harmful to the industry and public policy because it deceives policy decision-makers.
This is what explains his seemingly incompatible segments week to week. It's easy to dupe people into one conclusion just to defy it the very next week with an opposition view when you are doing that."
Lightning is BRIGHT
During Road Rage I mentioned that a nasty storm was brewing, and figured I'd show you.
Ha!
Sorry, folks.
I put it as an image before and not a video.
The GOP donor class doesn't at all share the values of the GOP base, and when they win elections, the donor class wants payback and the base wants promises kept.
The donor class wins every single time.
@RobertBarnes and @PeoplesPundit explain to Chat.
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Something is happening here?!?!
https://x.com/whitehouse/status/2079200970739724545?s=46&t=GimxI671Pqc2hckEBeJUSQ
Welp, I'm back. After we got done earlier and we spoke with Ro, Laura tried to no avail taking a nap, but was constantly bothered by one of the children. Lol.
But then I spoke with my father for a good long while, which was nice. Joe Piscopo called and sent him a recorded video after, which was super nice of him. My father would've loved watching that performance.
Tomorrow, I'm think we may be starting at 6:30pm so I can do a quick update with Matt Gaetz on his show. If not WATO, I'll try just doing ITN solo.
Good to be home, as usual, where we'll stay for a few days before heading to Chattanooga for the event with Barnes!
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.