I'll just past what I wrote on X for those not on the platform. But this was a very important post about what Harry Enten does with his little segments on CNN, which is disruptive and harmful to political discourse and the polling industry. I will also link to the original tweet on X from @GenXGirl1994.
"Good attempt, one to be applauded. But with respect, still missing the bigger picture.
What Harry Enten does is essentially the opposite of what
@RCPolling / @RCPolitics does with aggregates and more importantly, what he's doing is the reason why aggregates are needed.
Let me explain.
But first, it needs to be said that Harry Enten polls nothing. Like Nate Silver before him, he is not a pollster and has no idea HOW to poll a population and is falsely presented to the audience as a polling guru.
He is not.
What Harry does is selectively cherry pick results from various pollsters who aren't even comparable in track record, methodology, etc. Essentially trustworthiness. He does not present his conclusions in proper context and they are frequently (likely intentionally) intended to mislead people with false conclusions at best derived from erroneous apples 🍎 to oranges 🍊 comparisons.
Of note, there are only a handful of us who polled the 2024 election correctly, and even fewer who have polled the Trump Coalition correctly for a decade.
Harry has never cited any of us.
The entire reason RCP designed the polling averages was to iron out errors and outliers to present a more accurate picture in the form of an average error.
As I take a chapter to explain in "Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Americans Really Want", this was BADLY needed for the industry, and literally saved the reliability of something so important as the generic ballot with the advent of their averages in the early 2000s.
He is literally cherry picking incomparable datapoints from incomplete datasets for headlines and deception. And he does so without explaining those differences and error track records. It is the OPPOSITE of what RCP, and now others such as DDHQ, are trying to do and it is harmful to the industry and public policy because it deceives policy decision-makers.
This is what explains his seemingly incompatible segments week to week. It's easy to dupe people into one conclusion just to defy it the very next week with an opposition view when you are doing that."
So...
This video was hours ago and internet wasn't enough apparently. But that's okay because I have to provide an update.
I am currently at Andrews AB. Might as well stay in DC area for the night. Have out. Get a rental in the am and head home.
I will be backed up but @RobertBarnes and I are doing a Friday Poll Special.
We will have a lot of drops.
Nate Silver thinks he’s smarter than everybody. He goes in and says this poll is credible, these right-wing pollsters are fake and these left-wing pollsters are great.
He weighted Wedgewood, a FAKE firm, higher than the New York Times, higher than Quantus, higher than Mark Mitchell! This is why his model gets humiliated year after year.
We need a complete overhaul of this industry.
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Our final pre-midterm approval for Trump isn't "juiced". It's right in line with the RCP Average, which took months to align to us on this and other trackers such as the Generic Ballot, and now mirrors George W. Bush ahead of 2006.
But alas, many want to compare this cycle to 2018, not 2006.
I have a major problem with that analysis. Here is our final approval overall, on the economy / jobs, and foreign policy / national security for President Trump right before the midterms in 2018 and now.
To think this will have no impact on Tuesday flies in the face of decades of midterm data.
Is it possible?
Sure. It's also possible someone builds me a time machine so I can travel back in time to profess my love for a 20-year old Sophia Loren.
It's unlikely, however.
Hey guys,
I'm going to pin this here. I've gotten a lot of questions about 1) the hardcover not on other distributors and 2) audiobook.
1) Yes, the hardcover as of now is only available on Amazon.
2. The audiobook has been submitted. It's out of our hands and up to Audible now. It'll just pop up on Amazon when it is available and if I see it first, I'll let you know.
Also, do not forget to leave a review if you liked it. As you can see, there are certain "MAGA" mad at me and just attacking me personally in reviews.
https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Down-Polls-Americans-Really/dp/B0HJRZ7JGR/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0
How Voters Grade the President’s Report Card
What is the Intensity Index in the presidential job approval rating? It’s very simple, but also very insightful in determining the national mood surrounding the presidency and even the president’s party. It’s the difference between the percentage of those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing in office. It can be either a positive or negative value.
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.